Steps must be taken now for the future

The climate crisis is like a wall that smashed our car’s bumper and engine after an accident and continues to smash the car towards the driver’s seat. We are watching the accident in slow motion.

Steps must be taken now for the future

DR. CALL MERT BAKIRCI

The sixth assessment report, published last week by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), shows how severe the climate crisis has been since the previous report, published more than 7 years ago, and how late it is in tackling the climate crisis.

There are 4 facts that are very clearly revealed in the report: Climate change continues to be experienced in the direction of global warming. The main reason for this change is by far the greenhouse gases emitted by humans. The effects of climate change will be truly dire and in some cases devastating – and the destruction has already begun. Finally, even if we can’t completely reverse the trend, every 1°C we reduce in Earth warming (i.e. 2°C instead of 3°C) will significantly reduce planetary damage.

We already knew these 4 facts; however, the special thing about this year’s report of the IPCC is that, thanks to the technology and scientific modeling methods that have developed in the last 7 years, the quantitative methods we use to describe this trend can be measured much more sharply and accurately. So, for example, the uncertainty and margins of error on expectations of average annual temperature rise or annual mean sea level rise have decreased considerably because we are now much more confident in our models and our technology is much more advanced. The report uses 5 different scenarios. If we put these scenarios on a scale, there are scenarios where greenhouse gas emissions will double by 2050 or 2100, to continue on the same road without changing anything and without taking any precautions. At the other extreme, there is the scenario of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero around 2050 as a result of taking very strict measures. Accordingly, it is possible to draw different future scenarios for humanity; but on some basic issues, all 5 scenarios give the same result.

For example, for all 5 scenarios, there is no way to prevent the planet from continuing to warm until 2100. However ….

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